Brief analysis of Greek elections result

By Yiorgos Vassalos

Results:

1.  New Democracy 18.87%

2. SYRIZA (Coalition of Radical Left) 16.76%

3. PASOK (Socialdemocrats) 13.19%

4. Independent Greeks 10.6%

5. KKE (Communists) 8.48%

6. Golden Dawn (Neonazis) 6.97%

7. Democratic Left 6.1o%

8. Greens 2.93%

9. LAOS (Popular Orthodox Alarm) 2.9%

10. Democratic Alliance (Liberals) 2.6%

11. Creation Again! (Liberals) 2.15%

12. Action (Liberals) 1.8%

13. Antarsya (Anticapitalist Left Cooperation) 1.2%

See results in the website of the Ministry of Interior

The parties that have rulled the country since the end of the military dictatoship in 1974 (Nea Dimokratia and PASOK) have collapsed. In all elections since then (except 1990-91) one of the two parties was able to gain a clear majority in the parliament and form one-party governement.  They were jointly scoring from 70 to 90%. Now they scored together 33%.

New Democracy has fallen from 33% in 2009  t0 19% and from 2.3 million votes to 1,2 million.

Pasok has fallen from 44% to 13%  from 3 million votes to 800,000.

Laos, the extreme right party that also supported the Eurozone loan agreements and the anti-social memorandums fell from 5.6% to 2.9% and from 386,000 to 182,000.

Although more than 2/3 of the population have responded they are against the memorandums in opinion polls, the political forces that support the Eurozone loan agreements are getting a much bigger percentage around 40% (Nea Dimokratia, PASOK, LAOS and extra-parliamentary liberal parties Action and Democratic Alliance). There is a clear majority though for parties that campaigned in favour of the immediate cancellation of the loan agreements: 44% for Syriza, Independent Greeks, KKE (communists) and the Golden Dawn. Parties that ask only the renegotiation of the loan agreements or don’t have a clear position on this (Democratic Left, Greens, Creation) score around 7.5%.

Parties that don’t cross the 3% threshold to enter the parliament gathered 18% of the vote.

SYRIZA, the Coalition of Radical Left, scored an extra-ordinary score from 4.6% to 17% and from 316,000 votes to 1 million. SYRIZA was by far first in all big cities (Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras) and to all working class neighbourhoods. New Democracy was first almost everywhere in the countryside. SYRIZA campaigned for an immediate abolition of the loan agreements and the anti-social memorandums but also for Greece staying in the Eurozone.

The  radical left gets a much more important score than the far right (27% vs 20%). The three radical left parties all together gather 27% (SYRIZA 17%, KKE 8.5%, Antarsya 1,2%).  The two latter parties campaigned for the exit of Greece from the Eurozone ans the European Union. It remains to be seen how SYRIZA will now pursue its two contradicting objectives: canceling the loans and staying in the Euro.

Shockwaves are sent by the tremendous score of the Neonazist criminal gang Golden Dawn scoring 7% and jumping from 20 thousand to 438 thousand votes. It is ironic that they got their best scores in small cities without too much immigration. Independent Greels, a split of New Democracy also focused on opposition to immigration and nationalist slogans and got 11%. The third party that can be qualified as extreme right, LAOS, got 2.9% and didn’t enter the Parliament. That makes a 21% for far right from around 6% that it got in 2009. We have to take note though that New Democracy also campaigned under the slogan ”re-occupy our neighborhoods from the immigrant ghettos” (as well as PASOK supported the project of closed detention centres for immigrants).

None of the far right parties has an expressed position in favour of leaving the European Union.

The electoral law in Greece demonstrates now fully its absurdity with bonusing the first party with 50 more seats. New Democracy get 108 seats, SYRIZA 52, PASOK 41, Independent Greeks 33, KKE 26, Golden Dawn 21, Democratic Left 19.

New Democracy has a three days mandate to form government. If it fails the mandate goes to the second party for the next three days, then to the third one and so on.

New Democracy and PASOK are calling for a broad pro-EU coalition. SYRIZA insists on non-substantial call for a left call without PASOK. Independent Greeks said they won’t cooperate with the treators of PASOK and New Democracy and he – quite speculatively – said he has common positions with SYRIZA on the debt and economy (his program though prones privatisation whereas SYRIZA wants public control of the banks, energy and more). Democratic Left said it would support a government that would change current policies and support a process of disengagement from the memorandums. KKE says it won’t cooperate with the ‘new socialdemocrats’ of SYRIZA that ‘spread illusions’ to the people.

It is therefore propable that PASOK, New Democracy and Democratic Left form a government when the mandate goes to the third party, PASOK. Such a government would have 168 / 300 seats but it will be politically very weak because the backbone will be formed by parties spectacularly punished by the popular vote. It would also imply a huge political cost for the third partner whether it is Democratic Left (which is the only one that leaves some openings for cooperation) or anybody else. SYRIZA still hopes to convince Democratic Left and KKE to support it and then MPs that would quit New Democracy and PASOK parliamentary groups.

The way that SYRIZA will deal with these processes but also whether KKE will abandon its failed tactic that cost it loosing thousands of votes in working class municipalities of big cities will define the programmatic perspectives of the Greek left and wether a front for people’s power will be formed. Antarsya which triple its votes from 25.000 to 75.000 has also an important political role to play on this respect.

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One Response to “Brief analysis of Greek elections result”

  1. Groot-Brittannië, Frankrijk, Griekenland: verkiezingen versus bezuinigingen | Doorbraak.eu Says:

    […] en dan Griekenland! Daar zien we in de uitslagen een brede, frontale afwijzing van zowel regering als bezuinigingsbeleid. En het is een scherpe, […]

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